RBI likely to hold Interest rates steady until at least July on strong growth: Poll

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will keep interest rates unchanged until at least July, a bit longer than the U.S. central bank is expected to do so, on strong growth and still-elevated inflation, according to a firm majority of economists polled by Reuters.

India’s economy grew a stellar 8.4 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2023, the fastest among major economies. Inflation, which is still close to the upper band of the central bank’s 2 per cent-6 per cent target, does not hint at an imminent rate cut.

All 56 economists in the March 15-22 Reuters poll expected the RBI to hold the repo rate at 6.50 per cent at the conclusion of its April 3-5 meeting.

They were, however, divided on when the first cut would come, with nine of 52 saying next quarter, 24 picking the third quarter, 17 saying the fourth quarter and the rest expecting it at a later time. Median forecasts put the rate at 6.25 per cent by the end of September and 6.00 per cent at the end of this year.

“The combination of headline inflation remaining above 5 per cent and the strong Q4 GDP figures will likely leave Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members cautious about cutting rates too soon,” said Alexandra Hermann, a lead economist at Oxford Economics.

“While the year-long downward trend in core inflation will be seen as encouraging, MPC members will likely not deem this sufficient and rather err on the side of caution, waiting until the headline numbers are on a clearer downward path towards the 4 per cent mid-point target.”

Inflation, at 5.09 per cent in February, will decline to 4.00 per cent in the third quarter before rising, poll medians showed. Price rises were expected to average 5.40 per cent and 4.60 per cent, respectively, in the current fiscal year and the next.

Although growth was forecast to slow to 6.6 per cent next fiscal year from 7.6 per cent in the current fiscal year – a significant upgrade from the 7.0 per cent predicted for this fiscal year just a month ago – it would still be the fastest among major economies.

That would provide less incentive for the RBI to ease interest rates before its major peers, particularly the Federal Reserve. The U.S. central bank is currently expected to deliver its first cut in June, a separate Reuters poll showed, but the risks are growing for that to happen later in the year.

“While the Fed has already indicated policy rates are likely to be reduced in the coming months, the growth and inflation dynamics in India suggests the RBI may just keep rates elevated for longer,” wrote Aditi Gupta, an economist at Bank of Baroda.

“In any case, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates much more than the RBI, which will ensure the interest rate differential settles somewhere close to the historical trend.”